Constitution Hill is/was the best hurdler seen for many a year. He is an outstanding racehorse in his category but for betting purposes, especially ante-post, we have to let go.
After missing last year’s rescheduled race, Constitution Hill will once again miss the biggest two-mile hurdle outside of the Champion Hurdle in March. There will be no Constitution Hill at Newcastle for the Fighting Fifth on Saturday.
The unbeaten Nicky Henderson-trained runner only managed one outing last season, a win at 1/12 in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. Now, we’re unsure as to when we’ll see him again.
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We’re all putting two and two together here. There was a major drift on Constitution Hill’s odds for the Fighting Fifth before his underwhelming public gallop with Sir Gino at Newbury.
He was very clearly not himself during that gallop. Despite the performance, and that betting drift, his trainer said that he was satisfied and that everything was OK. The jockey, Nico de Boinville, also declared his satisfaction with the pair proclaiming the gallop ideal and saying the horse would come on plenty for it.
Thanks to @NewburyRacing for having us this morning. A really helpful morning. Here is my review of the work including on Constitution Hill. #ad pic.twitter.com/HMrR5q6yr2
— Nico de Boinville (@NdeBoinville) November 19, 2024
People continued to back the horse, taking the “value” about the top performer in his field. Then what? The horse was announced as lame. Shocker.
There is no problem with the horse being wrong, but surely those involved simply have to be honest. The trainer, Nicky Henderson, is sponsored by a major bookmaker and the worry is that those involved in said betting company could know before any of us when the horse is not right.
The point here is that we cannot encourage people to take the perceived “value” about Constitution Hill for any upcoming targets. The punters, frankly, are annoyed at being taken for mugs.
Betting Drift a Major Concern
Without casting aspersions, the questions remain. Particularly, why did the horse drift in the Fighting Fifth market?
If nobody is aware of anything being wrong, then that drift simply does not happen. The normal situation is that the horse, as the best in his division by far, is odds-on for the race. Nothing changes until that public piece of work and only then, if it looks underwhelming, do the bookies react.
In this case, the drift happened beforehand and that most definitely suggests knowledge of the horse’s wellbeing. Negative knowledge in fact, which to a bookie is more valuable than knowing that a horse is flying.
This must really be questioned at the top end of the sport, but never is. Betting patterns are used to determine wrongdoing on a regular basis. How is this situation any different?
It must surely be the case that the BHA can ask bookmakers why they lengthened Constitution Hill’s price for the Fighting Fifth. They can surely interview the trainer as well and ask what communication he has with his betting partner.
There aren’t yet any prices available for the Christmas Hurdle, which Nicky Henderson says is Constitution Hill’s next target. You can however take prices as big as 5/1 on him for the Champion Hurdle in March, though we’d suggest that you do not.
Time will tell when it comes to when we’ll next see this horse at his best, if at all. What we would like to see is some timely, honest reporting on his condition as the paying punters.