The 2025 FA Cup Final is upon us. The Wembley showpiece kicks off at 4.30 on Saturday afternoon and sees Crystal Palace taking on Manchester City.
This is a fascinating encounter. The game sees 12th versus 4th take each other on from the Premier League, but we don’t think that makes Man City the strong favourites they are with the bookies.
We’re sticking to facts, logic and the truth rather than reputation in order to eke out some value from the cup final.
What the Odds Tell Us
Man City are 4/11 to lift the trophy outright, meaning it doesn’t matter how they win it. Palace are priced 2/1 to do the same, with Man City 8/11 to win over 90 minutes and the Eagles a standout 10/3.
When you delve deeper into recent form and how the two teams got here, you’ll see that despite having a genuine chance of victory, Man City are a terrible price.
Form Heading to the Final
| Round | Crystal Palace | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd Round | Stockport (1-0) | Salford (8-0) |
| 4th Round | Doncaster (2-0) | Leyton Orient (2-1) |
| 5th Round | Millwall (3-1) | Plymouth (3-1) |
| Quarter-Final | Fulham (3-0) | Bournemouth (2-1) |
| Semi-Final | Aston Villa (3-0) | Nottingham Forest (2-0) |
Man City beat Salford 8-0, just about got the job done 2-1 at Leyton Orient and beat Plymouth 3-1. They then won 2-1 at Bournemouth and won their semi-final against Nottingham Forest 2-0 before a slightly sparse Wembley crowd.
Crystal Palace nudged Stockport out (1-0), claimed a 2-0 win at Doncaster and beat Millwall 3-1 at home. They were much more impressive in round 5 beating Fulham 3-0 away, before showing outstanding form to hammer Aston Villa 3-0 in the semi-final.
The form shows that both teams really got serious at the quarter final stage. Man City did well enough, but an aggregate 4-1 against Bournemouth and Forest is trumped by Palace’s 6-0 up against Fulham and Aston Villa. That’s their first, albeit small, form advantage.
As for away league form, since they play at a neutral venue here, this may also surprise a few. Palace actually have a point more than Man City away from home, winning 7, drawing 6 and losing 5 for 27 points. Man City have won 7, drawn 5 and lost 6 for 26 points. Since the turn of the year however, things have kicked on for Palace.
From January on, Palace have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 for 18 points. Their run was utterly superb until they lost 5-2 at Man City and 5-0 at Newcastle, skewing these figures a bit, but they arrested that. Since then, they’ve drawn 2-2 at Arsenal and won comfortably at Tottenham last week to prepare for this.
Man City’s away form during the same period shows 3 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats for 12 points. They are 6 points behind their counterparts in that regard.
Pep Guardiola’s team are favourites here, so we need to check how Palace have done against the Champions League contenders. Leaving easy title winners Liverpool out, the form test comes against Arsenal, Newcastle, Man City, Chelsea, Villa and Forest.
Against those sides, Palace have won only once, drawing 8 times and losing 4. Since January, that becomes 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats for a total goals tally of 10 for and 15 against. In that run came the 5-2 and 5-0 thrashings at Man City and Newcastle, results that were the clear exception and not the rule.
The point is: Palace have shown evidence of improving month by month and they already have a more impressive away record this year than their opponents.
What About Injuries?
There remain doubts about Nathan Ake, John Stones and Rodri. Man City are not overly depleted, and it stills leaves their squad being worth many times that of Palace. What the form shows us is that we cannot at rely on market values or player ratings when it comes to these two teams.
Crystal Palace v Man City: The Cup Final Bets
The information we’ve taken in doesn’t even include the performance of certain individuals. We consider that to be too unreliable, especially with Palace not relying on one or two players to get the job done. For Man City’s part, some of their own big hitters have been disappointing most of the season.
Palace’s games against the aforementioned Champions League contenders have yielded 44 goals in 13 games. Their away games since the turn of the year have provided 28 in 10 matches.
The Eagles are a point better off than Man City away from home in the league overall, but 6 points better than them since January alone. They have the momentum there. There’s justification for adding a Crystal Palace win to your bets, however you use them. These are our highlighted punts:
- Crystal Palace to win the FA Cup outright: 2/1
- Over 2.5 goals: 4/6
- Both Teams to Score ‘Yes’: 4/6
This can be backed as a Bet Builder at odds of 9/2, or you can use these elements separately if you wish.