The excellent and consistent Bluestocking won the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Sunday at Longchamp, rounding off a brilliant season for trainer Ralph Beckett.
The trainer is most definitely at the top table now and, after a couple of terrific years, nobody begrudges his filly this success. She does fit into a very familiar category for winning Arc horses in recent times however, leading to some questioning possible unfair advantages in the race.
Big Apparent Weight Advantages
There’s already been talk about potential change in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Geldings are currently not allowed in the race, but the popular opinion seems to be that they should be as it would not adversely affect the breeding roster. Another potential change in the future could be to weight allowances.
The allowances given to female runners and to three-year-olds are pretty standard in truth. Bluestocking received 3lbs from the older males while runner-up Aventure got 10lbs as both a female and a three-year-old.
Pos. | Horse | Age | Weight (st-lbs) |
---|---|---|---|
1st | Bluestocking (Filly) | 4 | 9-2 |
2nd | Aventure (Filly) | 3 | 8-9 |
3rd | Los Angeles (Colt) | 3 | 8-13 |
4th | Sosie (Colt) | 3 | 8-13 |
5th | Sevenna’s Knight (Colt) | 4 | 9-5 |
6th | Zarakem (Colt) | 4 | 9-5 |
7th | Survie (Filly) | 3 | 8-9 |
8th | Delius (Colt) | 3 | 8-13 |
9th | Fantastic Moon (Colt) | 4 | 9-5 |
10th | Sunway (Colt) | 3 | 8-13 |
11th | Al Riffa (Colt) | 4 | 9-5 |
12th | Shin Emperor (Colt) | 3 | 8-13 |
13th | Look De Vega (Colt) | 3 | 8-13 |
14th | Mqse De Sevigne (Mare) | 4 | (9-2) |
15th | Continuous (Colt) | 4 | 9-5 |
Third-placed Los Angeles, a colt, was in receipt of 6lbs from the older males. Fourth-placed Sosie was another three-year-old receiving weight. Sevenna’s Knight was the only older male carrying 9st 5lbs who got into the money back in fifth place.
It’s notable that Bluestocking, although consistent at a good level, has run to about the same mark on several occasions this season but then suddenly ‘improved’ to win the Arc.
Los Angeles too was well fancied and finished third, despite beating Sunway and Illinois narrowly before finishing fourth in the Irish Champion Stakes. He’s good, but not that good. It’s almost as though connections knew he was well off in the conditions when the money came for him on Friday.
Does the Arc Need to Change?
With the weights as we’d expect them it’s hard to know how much they should change, if at all. The stats on this don’t lie, however.
It might simply be that the ground at Longchamp lends itself to those carrying as little as possible gaining an advantage. It’s been said before that the Arc and races on Champions Day are often run on bad ground which gives less of a chance to those classier horses who’ve been winning all year on faster going.
Pedigrees are of interest when it comes to assessing Arc winners, but again they’re what you’d expect. Sprinters and milers won’t win it, some are bred to stay, but generally speaking those with a proper middle-distance pedigree will do well here.
Of the last 20 winners, the male/female split is 50/50. That’s unusual for a top-level conditions race.
Male Winners | Female Winners |
---|---|
Ace Impact (2023) | Bluestocking (2024) |
Torquator Tasso (2021) | Alpinista (2022) |
Sottsass (2020) | Enable (2018) |
Waldgeist (2019) | Enable (2017) |
Golden Horn (2015) | Found (2016) |
Workforce (2010) | Treve (2014) |
Sea The Stars (2009) | Treve (2013) |
Dylan Thomas (2007) | Solemia (2012) |
Rail Link (2006) | Danedream (2011) |
Hurricane Run (2005) | Zarkava (2008) |
Of the ten male winners, six of those were aged three and therefore were themselves in receipt of weight. Only four of those 20 winners were older males, not in receipt of some amount of weight.
Three-year-old fillies account for four of the 20 winners, meaning 40% of all female winners. Many more placed horses were also in receipt of weight.
Those stats would seem to indicate, when compared with other weight-for-age Group 1 races, that the weight allowances in this race may seem to be just a little unfair.
Nobody wants to take away the double wins of Treve and Enable, while the class of the likes of Sea The Stars and Golden Horn may have seen them win anyway.
If geldings are indeed to be allowed in this race in the future, it may be the only change required for now in order to provide more data.
️ “It’s kind of stupid not having [Goliath] in this race!”
Should geldings be allowed to run in the Arc?#ITVRacing | @MCYeeehaaa pic.twitter.com/eQuKb8By8W
— ITV Racing (@itvracing) October 6, 2024
If top-class five-year-old geldings however still struggle against the Classic generation and/or the fillies and mares, we really as a sport need to be encouraging a more level playing field when it comes to weight allocation in this event.