Saturday marks Champions Day at Ascot and while we have the spectre of the ground to worry about – it will be heavy out there – it brings with it its own possibilities.
Some of the major players will not handle this ground well after a long season. Others, however, will love it.
On a day when Oisin Murphy is once again crowned champion jockey, we’re previewing each of the six races to look for the best value betting opportunities.
1:20 – British Champions Long Distance Cup
The opening Group 2 stayers’ race is likely to go to the odds-on Kyprios, or so we’re led to believe. He is known as the “brilliant” Kyprios but, just like former star Stradivarius, that’s as much to do with his consistency as it is the level he now reaches.
His winning form this season has remained steady, but that would mean expecting him to run to a mark of around 117 here in these conditions. Al Nayyir and Sweet William can do something similar, but the one with potential to beat that level is last year’s winner Trawlerman.
John & Thady Gosden’s runner has only been seen twice this year and comes into the race fresh. As a son of Golden Horn, he should love these conditions, embraces a battle if it comes, and is good value.
Selection: TRAWLERMAN
1:55 – British Champions Sprint Stakes
The secret is out now about Montassib after he won the Sprint Cup at Haydock. This meeting has always been the plan since he won at Newcastle in the Chipchase Stakes, and it’s felt that he will handle the ground fine.
He may still be ahead of Kind Of Blue, Swingalong and even July Cup winner Mill Stream, but it may not pay to ignore the obvious here in the shape of top-rated runner Audience.
The Gosden horse has been immense this season when on his game. He’s handled soft ground before, in fact when he has been beaten this season it’s been on a quicker surface which no longer suits him.
A strong frontrunner, he may take some catching now going down to six furlongs and his class may ultimately tell.
Selection: AUDIENCE
2:35 – British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes
This looks a very tight heat indeed. Kalpana (William Buick) is the solid one on British form and she’s going the right way, though we’re unsure of her ability on this ground.
Time Lock was ever so impressive last time out and should handle the conditions, while Village Voice should not be underestimated.
If her double figure price holds, a chance can be taken each-way on the German-trained Quantanamera. The Lope De Vega filly was an easy winner at Deauville back in August and, on a line through Arrest, she has enough to be very competitive here and she could do better yet after 55 days off the track.
Selection: QUANTANAMERA (each-way)
3:15 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
Charyn is the big dog in the mile division this season after his two Group 1 wins, but he’s not invincible and it’s been a long year for Roger Varian’s four-year-old.
Better value comes elsewhere, with Metropolitan interesting on this ground along with Sun Chariot winner Tamfana. Prague is another real up and comer too, but we want guaranteed class in wet underfoot conditions which comes with Facteur Cheval.
The French runner has been sparsely used this season but is excellent in these conditions and is capable of running to a mark of 120+.
Selection: FACTEUR CHEVAL
3:55 – Champion Stakes
William Haggas has committed Economics to this race regardless of the ground which is very sporting. It still may be however that he struggles a tad on it.
There’s nothing wrong with his form, but he’s too short in the market to take a chance considering that we’re going into the unknown.
Iresine is pretty solid, while Los Angeles just keeps getting the job done in all conditions. Anmaat, if back on his game, is a fair each-way option at a big price but the real class in this race is another French runner in the shape of Calandagan.
After his Royal Ascot romp and runner-up effort behind City Of Troy at York, he has the form to at least match Economics. He’s still improving too and, based on breeding and form, should relish the conditions.
Selection: CALANDAGAN
4:35 – Balmoral Handicap
As you’d expect, so many runners in the closing Balmoral Handicap are closely matched at the weights. Qirat is a reserve but would go well if getting in, as will State Actor, Daysofourlives, Holloway Boy and Thunder Run.
The one that stands out is William Haggas’ Elnajmm, ridden by Tom Marquand. A winner on his return at Newcastle before scoring again at Ascot, he has more to give yet and should be enjoying the ground late on when others are crying off.
Selection: ELNAJMM