This Saturday marks the official start of the Flat turf season in Britain. What that means, of course, is that it’s Lincoln Handicap Day.
As well as all the action at Doncaster on the grass, there’s a Premier Raceday meeting at Kempton on the all-weather. It’s worth watching that one too, especially the three-year-old conditions events later on the card as they’ll have a bearing on races to come this spring.
The start of the turf season is perhaps not what it was. It’s all about condensing the action into Saturday these days. There’s tons of racing to keep track of, but we’re only looking at the best value bets.
Over in Ireland, the Curragh also hosts a good card and there is jumping action at Stratford and Uttoxeter. Later, a decent novice race takes place at Newcastle which we’ve covered while over in the States, two of the top Kentucky Derby preps are staged.
The Arkansas Derby is run on Saturday night but keep a special eye on the Florida Derby in which Godolphin’s Sovereignty is favourite. Another win for him would see him go close to leading the market for the Kentucky Derby on May 3rd.
As for Donny, there has been a going stick error which isn’t ideal. It’s officially good to soft, good in places, and with nice weather to come going into Saturday we should have some nice racing ground.
These are our four picks for the best of the action on Saturday.
2.25 Doncaster – Cammidge Trophy
After the opening Brocklesby Stakes and the Spring Mile, the Cammidge Trophy is staged over six furlongs on the straight track at Doncaster. A Listed race, this can often prove to be a pointer towards some of the top sprints later in the season, including at Royal Ascot.
It’s very close this time and there’s lots going on. Some are race fit, some aren’t, while they are at various stages of their careers.
Marshman remains of interest going forward but his 3lb penalty is a negative this time. We’re not sure what level Spycatcher will reach these days, with four-year-old JAMES’S DELIGHT appearing to be the most likely improver.
He’s rated 100 now for trainer Clive Cox, he was going the right way last year and he also managed a first time out win last season in early April.
3.00 Doncaster – Doncaster Mile
Another Listed race on the card is the Doncaster Mile, the event that proved to be the springboard last year for subsequent multiple Group 1 winner Charyn. It’s doubtful that there’s anything that good in this year’s line-up, but it still looks pretty classy.
Dancing Gemini (Roger Teal) went steadily backwards last season but had been thought of as a Group 1 animal. After a break, he could be dangerous, but he’ll need to crash the private Sheikh Mohammed Obaid party.
The top owner has the two big hitters in the market here: Karl Burke’s LIBERTY LANE and George Boughey’s Botanical.
Apart from hiccups at Epsom and York, Liberty Lane had a rock-solid season in 2024. He ended up romping the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket before finishing second in a good Group 3. He may even have been over the top by then, so he reads here like an unpenalised Group 3 winner.
He appears to have the speed, the class and the guts to see off Botanical and the rest under Clifford Lee.
3.35 Doncaster – Lincoln Handicap
Last minute bettors may want to watch the Spring Mile before deciding on any potential draw bias in the Lincoln. To be honest though, we’re not certain it’ll make that much difference in the end.
There are a couple of other key points there. First, there aren’t actually that many obvious four-year-old improvers this time around, though we still reckon it’s most likely that one of them will win it. Wathnan Racing in fact has two them and that leads to the second point.
It’s hard to separate Wathnan’s pair at a glance. Native Warrior has done very well and shows up nicely on the numbers, but James Doyle has chosen to ride MIDNIGHT GUN and that’s almost a tip in itself.
Before the final declarations, Harper’s Ferry was challenging for favouritism. He just about got the better of Midnight Gun here last autumn and it was widely expected that the Wathnan runner could outdo him this time. Harper’s Ferry was withdrawn.
There’s plenty of improvement in the son of Kingman. He showed lots of progression last season and even plenty of speed and a change of gear on soft ground. He’ll appreciate a slightly nicer surface and from stall 13, James Doyle can choose to go anywhere.
Magnum Opus (Simon and Ed Crisford) and Oliver Show (George Boughey) are also worth a special mention.
6.00 Newcastle – Maiden Fillies’ Stakes
This race comes after the major terrestrial TV action, though it is shown on Sky Sports Racing and via streaming with your bookmaker. Just the five three-year-old fillies line-up here, but there might be at least one decent animal.
Assuming the tissue price of 2/1 proves to be in any way accurate, then John and Thady Gosden’s BAYENAH will be the one to be on.
The Shadwell filly, by Dubawi out of a Teofilo mare, is very well bred but hasn’t set the track alight so far. She’s gone 653 since making her debut, but the key point is that she started from a very low base and has improved in great chunks with each run.
Smart type! Janey Mackers shows a lovely turn of foot and bolts up at @DoncasterRaces for @DavidMenuisier in the hands of @oismurphy… pic.twitter.com/IwIM5ZYc2C
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) October 25, 2024
Assuming she does that again, which looks likely, then Jim Crowley’s mount should have too much for this lot and can start pointing towards black type very soon.