Most of the Premier League’s teams have now played out 17 games this season. Liverpool are clear favourites for the title now, but as we head towards the midway point who remains in contention for European places?
Bournemouth Impressive, Man United Average
At what point can we really see who is genuinely challenging for Europe? The league table (points) is our go-to, but naturally the league will not finish in the order we see it now so we need to think differently.
Bournemouth sit fifth the league right now and they are there on merit. They were outstanding at Old Trafford in their 3-0 win. We also have to consider however that, as impressive as that win was, Manchester United are simply bang average at this level.
Man United are clearly going to struggle to get up the table. With that, we need not to allow ourselves to get carried away with Bournemouth but 28 points from 17 games is a good return so far.
Tottenham Just Too Open
At this stage, when we’ve not seen each team play each other home and away, goal difference can be a better indicator than points. Tottenham have done well on that score, still being at +14 despite losing 6-3 at home to Liverpool.
We can’t ignore that scoreline however which is typical of Spurs who are too open. Ange Postecoglou is going into the same category as Kevin Keegan, Terry Venables, Neil Lennon and the likes. They could get their teams pumped up and they play good football, but there’s no real tactical nous there. They will continue and win and lose games regularly.
Newcastle and Villa the Champs of Tomorrow?
Newcastle and Aston Villa meet on Boxing Day. But for the ridiculous PSR rules, Newcastle and Aston Villa could easily have been challenging for the title already. Both however continue to challenge for European places.
The Toon have been much better over the last week after an inconsistent start. They scored 11 and conceded 1 in three league and cup matches with Gordon, Isak, Hall, Bruno and Tonali outstanding. They didn’t however face the strongest of opposition but that’s a good thing.
Dan Burn said recently that he doesn’t worry when Newcastle play Man City or Arsenal, but he acknowledges that they’ve struggled for motivation against “smaller” teams. The last week has put that to bed. It would be a big statement if they beat Aston Villa on Boxing Day.
For their part, Villa continue to go well. Beating Man City was a predictable result. They are a genuinely good side, but Man City’s “process” is what continues to get them beaten and I think Villa knew that. Villa had to do nothing at all spectacular or out of the ordinary at Villa Park. Everyone just did their job to record a routine, if admittedly energetic win.
If they do lose on Boxing Day at Newcastle, then much will depend on how they handle the second half of their Champions League campaign if they are to qualify for Europe again.
Forest Quality, Man City an Enigma
Chelsea have much improved over the last year. They looked nailed on for Europe, perhaps even for the Champions League, but are they likely title winners? I’d say not, though Arsenal can catch Liverpool. Perhaps then, three of the four Champions League places are effectively already taken?
Brentford are good at home, making Nottingham Forest’s recent 2-0 win there more impressive. You can’t help feeling Man City can finish well, so would that seal the top 4?
As of now, I’d say no. Villa were easy to pick the other day as there was no earthly reason to say Man City’s slump would suddenly end. It didn’t. I feel the same about the next couple of weeks.
The transfer market and/or a true resolution to the 115 charges and any subsequent punishment needs to happen before we see where Man City go in the longer term.
Of the four semi-finalists, Newcastle and Tottenham you will in particular will want to win the League Cup anyway. That pair will also however be thinking of it as a guaranteed and early route into Europe to take all the pressure off. As things stand, both teams could have what they consider to be good season’s and still finish 8th or 9th.
Here’s how the table looks as of game week 17:
| Pos | Team | Played | Points | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 16 | 39 | +21 |
| 2 | Chelsea | 17 | 35 | +18 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 17 | 33 | +18 |
| 4 | Nottingham Forest | 17 | 31 | +4 |
| 5 | AFC Bournemouth | 17 | 28 | +6 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 17 | 28 | +0 |
| 7 | Manchester City | 17 | 27 | +4 |
| 8 | Newcastle United | 17 | 26 | +6 |
| 9 | Fulham | 17 | 25 | +2 |
| 10 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 17 | 25 | +1 |
| 11 | Tottenham Hotspur | 17 | 23 | +14 |
| 12 | Brentford | 17 | 23 | +0 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 17 | 22 | -1 |