On Tuesday, we learned this year’s Grand National weights and at the time same, further Cheltenham entries and scratchings.
Horses were taken out of the Champion Hurdle, Stayers’ Hurdle and Mares’ Hurdle and the Grade 1 novice races. Entries were also revealed for the Mares’ Chase and the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle.
We’re taking a look at how this affects the ante-post odds.
Constitution and Kopek Odds-On for Opening Day Tasks
As we anticipate the Cheltenham Roar ahead of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, runaway Grade 1 scorer Kopek Des Bordes is now odds-on across the board for the opening race.
In total, 37 now remain entered in the race at the latest stage. Still unbeaten, the favourite was well on top at Leopardstown and is no better than 10/11 with major firms.
We also see the Champion Hurdle on day one of the festival for which Constitution Hill remains favourite after this acceptance stage. Only ten potential contenders are left, with the favourite no bigger than 8/13. Brighterdaysahead (2/1) and Lossiemouth (4/1) also remain entered.
Those odds are bound to change significantly when plans are known for certain horses. Case in point Brighterdaysahead who is also entered up in the Mares’ Hurdle for which she is odds-on, while Lossiemouth is as short as 5/4 for that same race.
Majborough the Mover After Sir Gino Setback
Many holding 12/1 ante-post tickets on Majborough for the Arkle Chase were seeing the brighter side of Sir Gino’s recent injury setback. Fifteen horses remain in the race, with Majborough now leading the way at a general 4/7. L’Eau Du Sud is next in at a best-priced 4/1.
Ballyburn has accepted for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase and is 7/4 market leader, while there are fully 50 left in the Turner Novices’ Hurdle. Thirty remain the Stayers’ Hurdle and are headed by Teahupoo, with 44 still in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle for which Final Demand and The Yellow Clay lead the way.
Bookies Taking No Chances on Grand National Winner
I Am Maximus remains in contention for a Grand National repeat and is the general 11/1 second favourite behind Inothewayurthinkin at 8/1. He has not been given an easy task by the handicapper, however.
When asked this week about the task set for I Am Maximus, trainer Willie Mullins admitted it would be tough after the gelding was given topweight.
He now carries 8lbs more than last April having been handed 11st 12lbs. A total of 33 horses are guaranteed a start, Senior Chief being the last of those on 10st 10lbs. He is rated 151 which shows the quality on show, at least potentially.
These days the maximum field is set at 34 with 90 horses still engaged at this stage.
Key National Weights
There’s more than I Am Maximum making the news after the National weights were released. These are some of the key names along with the weights they’ve been handed for this year’s spectacular:
| Horse | Trainer | Weight (st-lbs) |
|---|---|---|
| I Am Maximus | Willie Mullins | 11-12 |
| Royale Pagaille | Venetia Williams | 11-9 |
| Grangeclare West | Willie Mullins | 11-8 |
| L’Homme Presse | Venetia Williams | 11-8 |
| Nick Rockett | Willie Mullins | 11-8 |
| Inothewayurthinkin | Gavin Cromwell | 11-5 |
| Monty’s Star | Henry de Bromhead | 11-5 |
| Minella Cocooner | Willie Mullins | 11-2 |
| Stumptown | Gavin Cromwell | 11-2 |
| Galvin | Gordon Elliott | 10-13 |
| Perceval Legallois | Gavin Cromwell | 10-12 |
| Iroko | Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero | 10-11 |
| Intense Raffles | Thomas Gibney | 10-10 |
| Meetingofthewaters | Willie Mullins | 10-7 |
| Monbeg Genius | Jonjo & AJ O’Neill | 10-6 |
| Three Card Brag | Gordon Elliott | 10-5 |
| Mr Vango | Sara Bradstock | 10-2 |
In terms of trainers, it’s clear to see that Willie Mullins holds a strong hand. Any domination of the race however is set to surround owner JP McManus who has several top contenders on this list.
What Does It Take to Win the Grand National?
It seems everyone was waiting for this moment. The National weights being released is a massive moment, but it’s no longer the seismic moment it once was.
As the race gets shorter, the fences get smaller, the field is reduced and training and veterinary techniques change, the National isn’t as difficult as it once was.
Weirdly, that gives punters a problem. There was a sweet spot, sometime after the turn of the millennium, when you could greatly reduce a Grand National field for betting purposes.
They didn’t win from the top of the weights because the race was too hard, and they didn’t win from the bottom because they weren’t good enough. You got a horse rated 140+ and you had the class without the excess weight to cope with the situation. That’s no longer true.
“French-bred horses don’t win the National” – that’s gone. “Topweights can’t win the National” – also not true.
You will have to essentially consider the full 34-horse field when it is known. Surely that’s a good thing as we complain about how the race has changed?
What you do need, much like in any other race, is an improving chaser. As long as you’re confident that they will stay the distance, an improving chaser likely to be ahead of the handicapper is crucial and so that’s why these advertised weights are still important.