All 24 Championship teams play at 12.30 this Saturday, as we reach the final day of the regular season.
Both Leeds and Burnley are already promoted, in fact they each stand a chance of reaching 100 points. It’s mad in fact to think that on Saturday, one of this pair may reach triple figures for the season and still not win the title.
What isn’t already solved is the final play-off line-up. Sheffield United and Sunderland will finish third and fourth respectively, but Bristol City (5th), Coventry (6th), Millwall (7th), Blackburn (8th) and Middlesbrough (9th) can all still finish in the top six.
The final relegation issue also isn’t figured out. Cardiff are gone and Plymouth most likely won’t survive even with a win due to their goal difference. But Hull (22nd), Luton (21st), Preston (20th), Derby (19th) and Stoke (18th) are all still in the mix and could be resigned to League One football yet.
Key Final Day Fixtures
With those promotion and relegation-related matters in mind, these are the most pertinent fixtures in the second tier on Saturday:
- Bristol City v Preston North End – 5th versus 20th, City around 3/4 with Preston at 18/5
- Burnley v Millwall – 2nd versus 7th , prices 4/7 and 9/2
- Coventry City v Middlesbrough – 6th versus 9th, Coventry 21/20, Boro at 11/5
- Plymouth Argyle v Leeds United – 23rd versus 1st, 9/1 plays a general 1/4
- Sheffield United v Blackburn Rovers – 3rd versus 8th, 13/10 plays 2/1
- West Bromwich Albion v Luton Town – 10th v 21st, 2/1 v 13/10
A glance at these fixtures shows us that, for the most part, those desperately needing a win face tough away fixtures. The only thing that may help Preston’s relegation fight and Middlesbrough’s play-offs hopes is that the home teams may subconsciously relax and feel that the job is done. Surely however, that won’t be the case.
Plymouth look done. They need a landslide, but they need it against the best team in the league. Not only do Leeds want the title and 100 points, but amid all the talk of promoted teams coming straight back down they do look recently like a bona fide Premier League outfit.
There could yet be some betting opportunities in the other six fixtures too.
Best Bets
The Championship looks typically tough to call on the final day but the following four bets stand out for us.
Norwich to Beat Cardiff @ 3/5
This is not one of the key fixtures, but it does provide a betting opportunity. Norwich’s home form is generally positive: 17 games won or drawn versus 5 lost with a goal difference of 48:32.
Cardiff’s away form isn’t what got them relegated, but it’s bad. They’ve won 2 games on the road versus 20 either drawn or lost with a goal difference of 22:42. The Bluebirds are down now and there is not a good feeling at the club with Wrexham coming the other way. The Norwich fans want a positive end and should be too good.
Blackburn to Beat Sheffield United @ 2/1
Sheffield United are guaranteed third but aren’t finishing well. Overall, at home their win/draw/loss record is 15-3-4, Blackburn’s away being 7-4-11. That doesn’t tell the whole story.
Blackburn are sniffing a play-off possibility. Their own recent form isn’t outrageously good, but they won 1-0 at Luton and 1-0 at Sunderland for two road victories in a row. They aren’t certs, but they’ll keep it tight, make it tough and are value at 2/1 against a team that doesn’t need to win.
Bristol City to Beat Preston @ 3/4
Bristol City are the fourth-best team in this league on home results. Preston are naturally on a negative away and are an outside shot to be relegated on the last day.
The home side lost heavily at Leeds the other day, but they are different gravy. Two defeats in a row isn’t ideal for Bristol City, but it will have been drummed into them all week that a win keeps them in the play-offs and motivation is high. Preston may get overrun.
Coventry to Beat Middlesbrough @ 21/20
If we’re right about these results, the play-off picture may not actually change much during the afternoon.
A huge Boro win here no doubt in front of a large travelling support would mean they leapfrog their hosts, perhaps into the top six. Many will be backing that outcome.
Boro need that, but they’ve needed it for weeks and not delivered. They drew 0-0 at home with Norwich recently, losing at Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth before that.
Coventry have wobbled too, but their latest defeat was an unlucky one at motivated Luton having gone down to ten men very early. They have enough in their armoury to get the job done here.