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The first classics of the season at Newmarket are coming thick and fast. Ahead of the impending trials, there has already been plenty of market movement.
Both the 2000 Guineas and Derby markets have been predictably saturated with Aidan O’Brien runners, but it may pay to look a little further away from Ballydoyle. One potential Guineas runner put in a fine performance on Wednesday, albeit in novice company, while there was also an interesting ten-furlong debut winner the same day who may yet head to Epsom.
We have trials on Greenham day at Newbury on Saturday, while the Craven meeting takes place from Tuesday before the Burradon Stakes on Good Friday at Newcastle. The Guineas itself is in three weeks’ time creating yet more market movement, ahead of trials at Sandown, York, Lingfield and Chester. There’s lots to come.
It’s an exciting time of year for sure and the anticipation is building, but where do they all stand right now?
Potential Contenders
Twain & Expanded
Don’t confuse any exacerbation with the bookies as negativity towards a wonderful trainer, but the O’Brien love-in shouldn’t be confusing punters. The Lion In Winter was announced as a doubtful Guineas runner when favourite, only to be replaced by two more from Ballydoyle in Twain and Expanded.
The second-named has crept down the list now, and neither screams classic Guineas type. There is sheer potential in them, but they’ll need a strong trial to be considered which is perhaps similar to Harry Charlton’s Cosmic Year.
Cosmic Year
The Kingman colt was brilliant on debut and imperious on Wednesday at Kempton. He’s learning, but that’s all the experience he has. Unless he heads to Newcastle he’ll be without a trial and that probably isn’t enough. He may prove to be the best of these in time but may be more of an Irish Guinea/Royal Ascot hope.
Shadow Of Light
Charlie Appleby’s Lope De Vega colt was a rare Middle Park/Dewhurst double winner last season. He should stay the trip, though it’s not guaranteed. He is very much the proper form horse in the race, and he looks likely to head straight to the big race on May 3. Tough to beat if seeing it out.
Scorthy Champ
Joseph O’Brien’s contender has had three runs, and he is a Group 1 winner. That’s the profile usually needed. Natural progression puts him roughly where he needs to be but the form isn’t the very strongest on offer. He’s among the elite, but not necessarily their superior.
Ruling Court and Opera Ballo
Another two for Appleby. Ruling Court was an expensive buy who made a great debut. He was also favourite to beat The Lion In Winter at York, a fact we shouldn’t forget as it may well be he had a problem there. Imperious again in Dubai recently, he’s ready now and may go straight for the Guineas, but he may want further.
Similar thoughts apply to Opera Ballo. His first two runs were in the same races won by last year’s Guineas champ Notable Speech. He too won both in great style, perhaps even better than his stablemate.
Both horses could be considered for the Guineas, the Derby or both. Opera Ballo has hit favouritism for the Craven Stakes next week, but he’s also in the nine-furlong Feilden. Which one he lines up in may tell us whether he’s going to the Guineas, or whether he may be a Dante/Derby type.
Field Of Gold
The Juddmonte colt is going for the Craven and he was a good Solario winner. One gets the impression he went for his backend Group 1 as there was no other option, but the ground was against him. Let’s see what he does at Newmarket next week.
Desert Flower
The champion juvenile filly of last season gets that title by some way. She’s unbeaten in four, is a comfortable Fillies’ Mile winner and must be doing some great things at home. Without having been seen in public, she’s been backed down from 7/4 to 5/4 favourite for the 1000 Guineas.
She will head straight to that race as a hardened Group 1 winner, though how she finishes is an important factor on the day as the Oaks could also be under consideration. High class.
Lake Victoria
Also unbeaten for Aidan O’Brien, it could be a hell of a battle if she turns up. By Frankel, she stayed a mile in America but that’s a quick mile and she looks full of speed, something she gets from her distaff side.
Red Letter
The only other filly with single figure odds for the 1000 Guineas, she is clear third-best at this stage. She’s in the right care with Ger Lyons but a trial may be needed.
Others
Nardra (William Haggas) runs on Saturday and could be anything, as could Verse Of Love (Charlie Appleby) who’s in the Nell Gwyn. A special mention goes to Saeed bin Suroor’s Elwateen who is a 66/1 shot having only won a novice so far. Strangely, she’s going straight to Newmarket and has been working well at home.