TALKBET

All Work and no Play Makes Jack a Dull Boy

A quote from Stephen King's The Shining (1980). A great film with an excellent cast. Directed by Stanley Kubrick  I know some of you wordsmiths are thinking: ''Stephen King didn't coin the phrase.'' It is a proverb which goes back to 1659. And means (surprise surprise) without time off work, a person becomes both bored and boring.

Getting ready for the start of the new Flat turf season, I am slowly becoming Jack Torrence (Jack Nicholson) not because I'm a caretaker of an old haunted hotel, an alcoholic or an aspiring writer. Thankfully, it isn't snowing, although that would give me a bit of time on my side. 

I've been analysing two-year-old horse trainer data. It is a slog. I can spend a few days getting to grips with any given soul. I've been wrestling with Roger Varian this week. The thing about data analysis is that the only good part is when it's done. Then all the assumptions can be understood a little better. I consider them as helping point me in the right direction. Nothing is carved in stone. However, these findings are very interesting. Now, I'm not going into detail about each and every aspect of the research of information gleaned because I've been working like an Oscar winner and I don't particularly want to just give my hard work away unless someone has something to give in return. It's a funny old world, hey. Else, you have a merry line of ''takers'' who not only take your knowledge for free but at the same time take the PISS. 

Anyway, I'm a very generous person so if those words seem a bit Jack Blunt (rather than Torrence or Nicholson) you are welcome to contact me if you want to swap info (joking). 

So I have been working on the horse trainer stats. I have always used this information and it has definitely proved positive. This year, I am going even more in depth and it will be interesting to see how this pans out when working with betting opportunities. Time will tell. I have little doubt it will be helpful but the proof is in the eating. Just imagine the data is a blackberry crumble with custard. 

The Flat turf season isn't far away. I see the Lincoln meeting at Doncaster is for the 30th March or around that time. The first two-year-old race should be the Brocklesby Stakes. Well, unless we have something on the all-weather. We will have to see. I'm not keen on the all-weather diluting the Brocklesby Stakes. I am hopeful it will be the first two-year-old contest. 

Anyway, enough about statistics for one day, I'm going to pour myself a drink, put my feet up and have a good read. 

 

Great Yarmouth Horse Racing Membership 2019

I love having a day's racing at Great Yarmouth. 

I've been going since a child when my parents stayed at the Haven holiday park at Caister-on-sea. Lots of good times, making sandcastles, playing the one-armed bandits and going to the races with my Dad (Colin). We always visit the course for the Eastern Festival which covers three days in the middle of September. It is a merry pilgrimage to walk in the footsteps of those who have sadly passed away.   

Those people include my Dad, his brothers, Keith and Roy, Uncle Fred and friend such as Pete Miller. They used to love their racing, a few loved their drink even more. 

Life makes you think, hey? 

For that reason, we go to Great Yarmouth races, a big old group of family and friends. A little bit of betting on course and then later in the evening at the Grosvenor Casino. The weather always seems to shine and it really is a beautiful week to have fun and gather our thoughts. 

I've never been a member of the course. My cousin, Danny, is a member of Huntindgon. I've been there a few times with him but the National Hunt isn't really my things. I don't bet for fun and I don't have the slightest idea what is good, bad or ugly over the sticks. 

The annual membership at Great Yarmouth is £260 a year if you buy before March. Considering it covers 23 meeting, four complimentary tickets it isn't going to take much to pay for itself. 

If anything, it will encourage me to go more often. Get a decent sunny day and I'll jump on the train from March to Yarmouth in a couple of hours. 

I have stayed a number of different hotels, especially out of season when it is as cheap as cheap. Last visit with my brother (to go to the casino) we stayed at the Nelson Hotel. A huge family room and breakfast for £65. It doesn't get much better than that. Gareth lost £40, I won £80, and a lucky number 9 saw Tony leave with £280. Not bad considering he never changed more than £20.

We often go late evening. Get there for about 9 pm. Go to the casino for a meal, which can be a bit hit and miss, and then downstairs to play roulette or three-card poker. I've played the later a few times but the casino edge is criminal on pair plus and even when you have the luck of the devil the payout never seems to glorious. 

Anyway, I will be venturing down the coast more times this year and try to get value out of my membership.  

Definitely worth buying.

Trainer Quotes Vs Group Horse Daily

It seems the world and his wife want that little bit more insider horse racing news. It seems that many punters are willing to pay for 'info' about what a given horse trainer thinks about their horse(s).

Trainer Quotes is one of a few platforms with connections to stable. I'm pretty sure another known website is called From The Stables. Both have clear links with a string of trainers. 

I'm not sure how they fair when it comes to being in profit at the end of the season. 

I note Trainer Quotes as they detailed a horse which Group Horse (Daily) identified. The horse in question being Global Spectrum, trained by Gay Kelleway, in the ownership of Dr Johnny Hon. The horse won well on debut at Kempton and similarly showed real promise when winning from a high draw over course and distance. Great to see Kelleway have a decent horse in the ranks because her other two-year-olds last season were pretty poor. 

I guess all these platforms give a free trial or some aspect to show their worth. I know From The Stables cost £30 a month. If they show a profit, it is money well spent by definition. 

The great aspect of Group Horse (Daily) is that they detail a list of unraced and lightly raced two-year-olds from the largest to smallest trainers. In fact, number wise they leave the likes of TQ & FTS left wanting. They detail 20 - 30 trainers but that falls a long way short of Group Horse (Daily) who have over 100. How much would that cost? 

I have never seen any platform come close to the standards. They have testimonials which exclaim the same finding. They give two free 10 Dark Horse Mailings (sent out August/September) which achieve the highest standards. They are unraced two-year-old that is more likely than not to race a Group class.  

You can see what last year's horses achieved by clicking this link. 

All three websites are worth a look. However, for free information, you are very unlikely to surpass Group Horse (Daily) because seeing is believing. 

Good luck to all. 

PS: One of the mailings detailed Classic race favourite Too Darn Hot, trained by John Gosden, before he made his debut and winning all four starts at two. Want to see the other horses? Click the link above and get your free mailing for the best two-year-olds in training 2019. 

 

 

 

If Jesus Had Been a Professional Gambler...

It's interesting how we view one another. How we make judgements. Jesus couldn't preach to those he knew because his words were not taken seriously. The people thought they knew him better than he knew himself. 

As time proved - the son of God was everything and more. His proclamations were true. 

In many respects, as a gambler people are judged more harshly by those they know. The stereotype of a gambler as a loser is a difficult tag to shift by those who think they know better. Everyone has an opinion. I enjoy - for the most part - others words. We can all learn, if we/they listen. No one wakes up one morning to find they are an expert in their field. It would be ridiculous to think anything else. Even if we accepted such a view it wouldn't take long to see the lack of talent of a bricklayer and his crooked wall.  

It is particularly true for a gambler. When the majority lose their cash could you really be the exception to the rule? In fairness the majority of people friends and family I meet - just about - give me the benefit of the doubt. It makes me smile. If only they knew the truth. How in one year I bet almost £400,000 and won a lot of money. How those years and understanding have increased with time. I know more now than at any time in my life. 

However, it is strange and a little lacking of others when they try to assess (me, you, them) but in truth their measure for comparison or understanding is limited. They have no understanding of horse racing but somehow feel they can judge. They don't understand the basics of gambling but they make a judgement. They are talking to someone with a lifetime of experience and talent but ''astonishingly'' imagine they know ''more''. Enough to judge. 

It doesn't hurt. It makes me smile. The lack of other people's knowledge is my strength. I absorb their lack by taking advantage of their weakness which they so often ''naively'' imagine is a strength. It's akin to me going to a Professor of Statics and trying to explain I know better because I can say the seven times table off by heart. 

KNOWLEDGE IS POWER.

Sadly, people who question...in actual fact need to know more than the person within in their sights. The student doesn't mark the lecturer's exam paper. 

It's the same old story. One thing people understand. Money. I could prove my worth in every sense of the word by showing more money than anyone could imagine. A wealth of knowledge which exceeds their dreams. The difference is that I enjoy my ''work'' because I do exactly as I wish.  I can work anywhere in the world. As I do when I very to see my beautiful Marlene in West Palm Beach, Florida. 

My opportunities are of my making.  

When was the last time you bet for a year, two years, a decade or decades and were in profit? 

If you have, well done. If you haven't I suggest you talk to someone who has before imagining you could ''somehow'' do better or simply that no one makes money but the bookmakers and layers. 

How naive. There are people making money in everything aspect of life.

I would challenge anyone within my niche to know more or do better. If you are I will shake your hand because I have met someone worthy of note.

If you fall short then all is not lost. Simply open your mind because if you don't believe anything is possible - then for you - it will never be a successful part of your life. 

Betting: Are You Struggling With My Stereotype?

I guess we all love to chat about subjects we know. I could listen to anyone talk about anything if they do so with passion. A glint in the eye, and confident discourse. 

One thing you should never do in life is limit others by your own perception of them. Humans are good at what psychologists call fundamental attribution error. You see someone drop something and class them as clumsy when they have a medical condition. Perhaps we shouldn't be too harsh on ourselves because it is just the way the mind works. But it proves that our thinking isn't always correct or what we see as the truth may be flawed.

Betting is the same.

The stereotype of a gambler doesn't paint a very promising picture. Just the same as the Frenchman isn't riding about on a bicycle wearing a beret and has a string of onions around his neck. Lipman first coined the term stereotype. It holds a grain of truth. However, it is a simple form of categorisation which doesn't really do anyone justice.

The general view that people lose if they gamble is correct. 

But that's the difference between the general and the specific. Ask 100 people if they win at gambling and 95% will lose. But if you bump into a line of 5% winners (like a winner's convention) everyone you talk to is a winner!

The difference between a winner and loser comes from the hard work of the individual. Would you beat a decent snooker player, poker player, athlete, quizmaster if you didn't practice, have a passion and want to be a player of some standing? 

So why is it that most punters never do anything to improve their knowledge? In fact, very few seem to have learned anything even after ten, twenty or thirty years. Still stuck to their basic - unlearned - process of 'winning'. It's like me going to a French class and after studying for years family and friends are bewildered to find I am far from fluent. I can order chicken and chips but don't ask me how much it costs?

Sure winning at anything isn't easy. Being a success in business isn't easy. Learning a trade isn't easy. Nothing worth its salt is easy. So why imagine gambling should be easy? The fundamental thinking of most people is flawed. If they sat down and gave their thoughts serious consideration they would realise they are wasting their time. 

When you consider how much some people waste gambling they really need to stop and think. 

The sad thing is, that with a little bit of work they could transform their fortunes. I could help you make your gambling pay.  You may read that and think otherwise. However, I guess you are stating that assessment from the standpoint of someone who doesn't make their betting pay? Fundemental attribution error. So forgive me for thinking your thoughts, judgement or assessment have little worth. Sad, but true. 

I could tell you 10 things about betting and pretty much guarantee you will make money. 

Do I want to do that? Not really because unless it is worth my time then there is very little motivation. Everything is about being motivated to succeed. 

Without question, you can achieve much greater success as a gambler if you assess where you are at and what you need to do to improve your ability. 

What's Your Favourite Grand National Winner?

Who doesn't love the Grand National? The greatest steeplechase in the world. It's a race that captures the imagination of young and old. 

Remember the time...

The great thing about the Grand National is that we all have a story to tell. Even if it was your Grandad reminiscing about the day he saw Red Rum walking around the paddock, before going on to win in style.  Which horse do you remember? Or perhaps it was a horse trainer or jockey? 

I love the National. I have many memories:

Firstly, I can't help but hear the music composed by Carl Davis. You know the theme tune, originally played in the film Champions (1984) starring John Hurt, telling the story of Bob Champion and Aldaniti. Champion, battling cancer, and his trusty horse, who had struggled for fitness after suffering serious injury. I often watch this iconic film and have tears in my eyes. I actually had a small bet on Aldaniti (I was fourteen) and what a supreme victory. A story that gives hope in times of adversity. Bob Champion went on to raise millions of pounds for charity and won the greatest battle - his life. 

Which other horses do I remember? 

I should say bet rather than horse...

This story is about my brother and a horse many will not remember called Classified. He ran in the days of West Tip and all those names which stick in the mind. It was an era of great Grand National winners. Classified never won but I think he finished third once but a remarkably durable horse who was never far away on umpteen tries. One year, the Racing Post reported that he had unseated his rider. And there was a wave of letters from frustrated fans who knew his saddle had slipped. Never - ever - would Classified unseat his rider or fall at a fence. He concluded a long career by winning his final race at Huntingdon. What a gallant horse. 

So many readers will state that Red Rum was the greatest of the greatest and who could knock such a wonderful horse. The only horse to win three times. 

I can't help but feel sorry for Crisp who had to give Red Rum 23lbs but tired in the closing stages to be caught by the murderous horse (Red Rum). For many, the 1973 Grand National is an iconic race. 

My Dad had a story. He loved the Grand National although I can't say he was much of a quizzer. However, knowledge comes in all shapes and forms and he often talked fondly on taking part in a quiz at the Lord Nelson pub and answering the question: Which horse won the 1968 Grand National? That would be Red Alligator!

For all those who love a bet, the National is one of few races where you can hit the jackpot for a small sum. Why? Well, over the years there have been 5 winners at 100/1. How about a cheeky £10 bet to win £1000? Now, that would be a story worth telling.  

There have been so many twists and turns. Horses which should never have won. Horses and jockeys who defied the odds. People who won and lost a fortune betting. 

This year's Grand National will tell another story waiting to be told. 

Yours.  

 

Betting Success: From Failure & Patience

You don't simply wake up one morning from a good night's sleep and find you are an expert in XYZ. 

Sure, you see it in all the sci-fi films. It may well be the case (one day) that you can buy a magic pill which not only helps you lose weight but an upsell means within 24-hours flat you can speak fluent French.  I'm not sure if you have watched the film Vanilla Sky? That wasn't about buying a pill but more about living in a dream state until the day comes when science meant you could live again. In this world, as yet, you make your own future.  

Gambling. What does that word mean to you? Is it fun, pleasure, hard work or business?

Honestly, would you expect to wake up one day and be a pilot flying with the Red Arrows? Of course not. You would crash and burn before even getting into the air. 

Why should gambling be any different? It shouldn't. But you aren't going to crash and burn the first time you make a bet. You may think it is just a bit of fun. Heck, everyone does it. Sure, many people do bet but how many questions why they bet. What made them make that first decision? Who or what planted that seed?  

For me, I learned about gambling from my Dad. The thing is that you may be reading this and think you can finish my sentence... that it was a bad idea, I regret ever placing that first bet and it has ruined my life. Conversely, it happens to be one of the best things I ever did. 

I think the reason for this is to do with me rather than the seed that was planted. I am a good gambler because I am not a natural gambler. In that I mean, I never bet for fun. I looked upon it like studying for a degree. I wanted to know more because I had seen enough to consider I could make it pay. I know what it takes to gain a degree because I did so with Open University and have a Hons Degree in Psychology (Bsc). 

Everything is about discipline. My degree took 7 years. It was a marathon rather than a sprint. It was a lot of hard work. But I knew I would gain a degree even before I started the course. 

How?

Because I made the decision I would do it whatever.  And at that moment, it made the journey much shorter. I just had to put one foot in front of the other. I only ever saw a tutor on three separate occasions (when they asked me to attend a meeting) and I did all the work myself. Basically, I didn't need a tutor. Just the literature and someone to mark my assignments or exams. I gained a 2:1, a few percents short of a first. 

What did I learn? Anyone with basic intelligence can get a degree. It is a matter of hard work. Learning. 

How does my knowledge of betting compare with a degree? I know a lot more. If there was a course for gambling I would, without question, be a doctor. That may sound as though I am raving about this or that or showing off. I'm not saying it for that reason. Far from it. I don't need to impress anyone but myself. That's what is going to see me succeed or fail. What better motivation.  

To be a successful gambler you need to build a foundation of knowledge. You don't need to know everything. Who knows everything? Only a fool. 

What you need to know is your subject matter. To know it better than most. That is the level you need to meet. It will be found after failure and patience. It is a journey that can be whatever you make it because you set your own guidelines. You can learn for a decade without spending a penny. Your return a knowledge that gives you the opportunity to win when you decide to bet for all the right reasons.

Do you know what the right reason means? 

That you have enough understanding and confidence to make your betting pay. 

You wouldn't blindly buy stocks and shares without a valid reason. 

Until science fiction bumps into real life you need to realise you are as good as the time and effort you put into your own success. 

Good luck. 

Picture: a scene from Vanilla Sky

So Factual Wins Nunthorpe Stakes Group 1

Foaled on March 4, 1990, So Factual was sired by Known Fact, who was awarded the 2,000 Guineas in 1980 on the disqualification of Nureyev, but was primarily an influence for speed in his progeny. Bred, and originally owned, by Prince Khalid Abdullah, founder of Juddmonte Farms and trained, initially, by Guy Harwood at Coombelands Racing Stables in Pulborough, West Sussex, So Factual made his racing debut in a humble median auction graduation stakes race, over 6 furlongs, at Folkestone in June 1992. Ridden by Pat Eddery, he comfortably justified 4/5 favouritism, winning by 3½ lengths.

Just two weeks later, So Factual took a huge step up in class, in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot but, even so, started only marginally third-favourite, at 11/2, and failed by just a short head to maintain his 100% record. He didn’t race again until October, when easily brushed aside, at odds of 1/3, in a run-of-the-mill condition stakes race at Pontefract.

However, on his reappearance the following April, in the European Free Handicap, over 7 furlongs, on the Rowley Mile Course at Newmarket, he proved that running all wrong. Help up in touch by Pat Eddery, he took the lead over a furlong out and ran on well to win by half a length. Stepped up to Group company, So Factual finished well beaten in the Duke of York Stakes, over 6 furlongs, at York and the Criterion Stakes, over 7 furlongs, at Newmarket on his next two starts and wasn’t seen again in Britain for nearly a year.

In the meantime, he was sold to Godolphin and transferred to Saeed bin Suroor, who was in his first season in charge at Al Quoz Stables in Dubai and Godolphin Stables in Newmarket. After a 209-day break, So Factual enjoyed a successful winter in the United Arab Emirates, winning three minor handicaps at Nad Al Sheba, now Meydan, under Ray Cochrane. Cochrane was aboard again when he made his belated four-year-old debut in Britain, in the Cork and Orrery Stakes, over 6 furlongs, at Royal Ascot in June 1994; he finished second, beaten half a length, but didn’t race again until 313 days later, in May, 1995.

On his five-year-old debut, when ridden for the first time by Lanfranco ‘Frankie’ Dettori, So Factual finished second, beaten 3 lengths, behind Lake Coniston in the Duke of York Stakes at York. However, the following month, again ridden by Dettori, So factual reversed the form, beating Lake Coniston by a head, on the same terms, in the Cork and Orrery Stakes, to provide Saeed bin Suroor with his first Royal Ascot winner. Stepped up to Group One company for the first time, So Factual and Cochrane were soundly thrashed, to the tune of 10¼ lengths, by Lake Coniston, when only seven of nine in the July Cup at Newmarket the following month.

Nevertheless, on his next assignment at the highest level, reverting to 5 furlongs for just the second time in his career, in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York, So Factual was to prove himself anything but a back number. Reunited with Dettori, who was returning from injury, he was sent off 9/2 third favourite of the eight runners, but never gave his supporters an anxious moment. Always going well, he quickened to lead on the outside over a furlong out and, despite hanging right in the closing stages, stayed on strongly to win by 1½ lengths. Ya Malak, who would dead-heat with Coastal Bluff in the same race two years later, finished second, with subsequent Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp winner Hever Golf Rose a further 1½ lengths away in third.

Mutlibet Strategy: Yankee, Canadian, Super Heinz....

Multibets. 

What do you think of them? For many punters, they are the worst bet ever created. Certainly, bookmakers love them. Why? Because most people lose unendingly. They bet, they lose. Money in the till. A joke bet!

It's pretty obvious finding two, three, four, five or more winners isn't easy. In fact, it's bloody difficult. But the positive side is that you can make a lot of money betting small stakes. The other aspect which makes sense for punters is that bookmakers welcome the bet. They aren't going to say no and that is a real strength for punters. 

I find that most punters fall into their own trap when it comes to making a multi bet. They take the fact they have a number of potential win opportunities as a reason to chance their arm. ''I'll pick a couple of half chances'' in the hope that they come in. It is a huge mistake. The strength of these bets is to wait until you have a few live chances on that day. I would go beyond that and dissect each selection and say look at them as if you were betting singles. 

If you feel any horse is going to struggle to get placed then leave it out. I know you are going to say of course I think it is going to get placed else why would I pick it? 

This is the point. You need to raise the bar of what you expect and what happens. I'm telling you know if you don't go close with your multi bet then, basically, you are doing something wrong. You are either pushing your luck too far or you aren't waiting for the right opportunities. 

I would suggest betting an each-way accumulator to hone your skills. Because if one horse is unplaced you will lose. This factor alone will make you re-assess what you are doing and whether you can reach this goal. If you can't select horses that are placed, at worst, on a regular basis you may as well give up.  

If you start placing on a regular basis, you know you have something going for you. An opportunity to make your betting pay.  

 

Saturday Tipping Competition: Bloody Good Winner!

I'm not sure if you have a competitive nature or not? 

I know I have a competitive nature. Not to the point of being selfish or stubborn but have confidence in my abilities. We all have strength and weakness. So why not revel or appreciate your ability. People do as they do. However, I don't think someone being outspoken of their ability is necessarily a bad thing. Late, darts player Eric Bristow, had almost a slanderous attitude about his opposition. Pointing out their lacking. I'm not sure if it is a good idea to pull someone to bits. It was his way of detailing how good he was. That works to a point but I'm sure he had plenty of supporters who admired his triumphs and those who wholeheartedly willed him to lose to get a bit of his own medicine. 

My confidence in myself is a lot less abusive than his. Although I do like the quality of someone believing in themselves because if they don't why should others. 

Anyway, I made the Saturday Tipping Competition. If you fancy you are good at horse racing and able to pick a winner or two you will have the chance to win good money in this winner-takes-all competition. 

This month we have 18 entrants which means we have a prize of £180. 

Not bad money for finding a few winners. In fact, it is better to play this competition than bet day in day out. 

Some of our players have won almost £500 since starting. When you think about it, you need just one winning month in one and a half years.

Take a look at Bloody Good Winner. 

 If you need further information, contact jason@professionalgamblers.co.uk